EVALUATION OF ENERGY DEMAND IN NIGER’S CONSTRUCTION SECTOR: A PROJECTION TO 2035

Abstract

The construction sector in Niger faces significant energy and environmental challenges. Sustained population growth (3.9% in 2021) and rapid urbanization (4.5% in 2021) have led to a substantial increase in the demand for residential, administrative, and commercial buildings. This trend, expected to continue, is driven by the expansion of mining activities (notably crude oil and uranium exports), the strengthening of agricultural infrastructure (hydro-agricultural developments), and the implementation of large-scale construction and road projects. These dynamics have resulted in growing energy consumption, mainly associated with the use of motorized equipment. However, construction practices remain largely traditional and insufficiently integrate the principles of energy efficiency and sustainability. The absence of a systemic approach to energy performance limits the sector’s ability to address climate challenges and meet sustainable development goals. The central objective of this study is to identify mechanisms to promote a sustainable and energy-efficient construction model in Niger one that reconciles the reduction of future energy demand with the increasing need for housing and infrastructure. Specifically, the study aims to: (i) assess the energy demand (fuel and electricity) of the construction sector by 2035, in line with the Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy – Niger 2035; and (ii) identify the scenario that achieves the greatest potential energy savings. The methodology is based on the MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) tool, a forward-looking modeling framework grounded in a techno-economic approach. Three scenarios have been developed: Reference scenario extending current trends; Audacious scenario combining strong economic growth with no energy efficiency measures; and Sustainable construction scenario combining sustained growth with the adoption of high-performance technologies. The main parameters considered include GDP growth, energy intensity, sectoral productivity, and equipment efficiency. Simulation results for 2035 indicate a total energy demand of 69 MWyr under the reference scenario (66.75 MWyr of fuel and 2.24 MWyr of electricity), 163.67 MWyr under the audacious scenario (158.33 MWyr of fuel and 5.34 MWyr of electricity), and 94.53 MWyr under the sustainable construction scenario (91.38 MWyr of fuel and 3.15 MWyr of electricity). The sustainable construction scenario would thus enable substantial energy savings, provided that concrete measures are implemented such as the adoption of high-efficiency equipment, the use of low-energy lighting, and the widespread application of sustainable construction practices, particularly in rural areas.