ESTIMATION AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MONTHLY AVERAGE DAILY SOLAR RADIATION AT UMS PEAK USING THE ANGSTROM-PRESCOTT AND OGELMAN MODELS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/aej.v16.25546Keywords:
solar radiation estimation, Ångström-Prescott model, Ogelman model , system reliability, UMS Peak, off-grid solar PVAbstract
This study evaluates the monthly average daily global solar radiation at UMS Peak using the Ångström-Prescott and Ogelman models, supported by local meteorological data and measured PV system performance. Results show that the Ogelman model provides more accurate estimations, especially during the monsoon months, with monthly deviations lower than those of the Ångström-Prescott model. The measured data, however, reveal significantly lower actual energy yield compared to theoretical estimates due to frequent system downtime and environmental constraints. Reliability assessment indicates a high Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of 32.6%, a Solar Energy Availability Factor (SEAF) of 67.4%, and monthly Performance Ratios (PR) ranging from 0.37 to 1.11. These findings highlight the substantial gap between solar resource potential and actual off-grid system performance, emphasizing the need for improved maintenance accessibility, wildlife protection measures, and system design optimization for remote high-altitude installations.
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