PREDICTION OF SHORELINE CHANGE USING A NEW LONG-TERM SHORELINE EVOLUTION MODEL BASED ON THE CONCEPT OF SEDIMENT BALANCE

Authors

  • Omar Ali Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6012-939X
  • Mohd Shahrizal Ab Razak Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11113/jurnalteknologi.v84.18106

Keywords:

Shoreline change, analytical modelling, sediment balance, beach loss, coastal erosion

Abstract

A new model that can predict long-term shoreline evolution in response to climate change for the 21st century has been developed. The developed model is an analytical model, capable of simulating coastal processes that contribute to long-term shoreline change, driven by the concept of sediment mass balance. The model was employed to simulate shoreline change along the 53 Km of coastline on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, which includes a variety of beach settings. The model was able to produce results close to the actual historical shoreline change for a hindcast period of 10 years, with an accuracy of 90%, indicating an excellent agreement between observed and predicted shoreline changes. Future coastal evolution predicted by the model indicate that by the year 2100, on average, 65% of beaches that are located along the coast of Pahang are going to disappear completely. Primarily due to the effects of long-term coastal sediment misbalance, the beaches are expected to lose roughly twice the amount of gained sediment as a result of the increasing impact of the coastal processes in the next 80 years.

References

Crowell, M., Leatherman, S. P., and Buckley, M. K. 1993. Shoreline Change Rate Analysis: Long Term Versus Short Term Data. Shore and Beach. 61(2): 13-20.

Camfield, F. E., and Morang, A. 1996. Defining and Interpreting Shoreline Change. Ocean & Coastal Management. 32(3): 129-151.

Stockdonf, H. F., Sallenger Jr, A. H., List, J. H., and Holman, R. A. 2002. Estimation of Shoreline Position and Change Using Airborne Topographic Lidar Data. Journal of Coastal Research. 502-513.

Dan, S., Stive, M. J., Walstra, D. J. R., and Panin, N. 2009. Wave Climate, Coastal Sediment Budget and Shoreline Changes for the Danube Delta. Marine Geology. 262(1-4): 39-49.

Komar, P. D. 1998. Beach Processes and Sedimentation Prentice Hall. 539.

Meade, R. H. 1982. Sources, Sinks, and Storage of River Sediment in the Atlantic Drainage of the United States. The Journal of Geology. 90(3): 235-252.

Morton, R. A. 2008. National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Part 1: Historical Shoreline Changes and Associated Coastal Land Loss along the US Gulf of Mexico. Diane Publishing.

Benedet, L., Finkl, C. W.; Campbell, T.; and Klein, A. 2004. Predicting the Effect of Beach Nourishment and Cross-shore Sediment Variation on Beach Morphodynamic Assessment. Coastal Engineering. 51(8-9): 839-861.

Dean, R. G. 1977. Equilibrium Beach Profiles: US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Department of Civil Engineering and College of Marine Studies, University of Delaware.

Masselink, G., Castelle, B., Scott, T., Dodet, G., Suanez, S., Jackson, D., and Floc'h, F. 2016. Extreme Wave Activity during 2013/2014 Winter and Morphological Impacts along the Atlantic Coast of Europe. Geophysical Research Letters. 43(5): 2135-2143.

Komar, P. D., and Inman, D. L. 1970. Longshore sand Transport on Beaches. Journal of Geophysical Research. 75(30): 5914-5927.

Tanaka, H. I. T. O. S. H. I., Duy, D. V., and Viet, N. T. 2017. Evaluation of Longshore Sediment Transport Rate along the Thu Bon River Delta Coastline in Vietnam. Proceedings of the 37th IAHR World Congress. 2017(9): 29.

Douglas, B. C. 1991. Global Sea Level Rise. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 96(C4): 6981-6992.

Stive, M. J. F., Aarninkhof, S. G. J., Hamm, L., Hanson, H., Larson, M., Wijnberg, K. M., Nicholls, R. J., and Capobianco, M. 2002. Variability of Shore and Shoreline Evolution. Coastal Engineering. 47: 211-235.

Zhang, K., Douglas, B. C., and Leatherman, S. P. 2004. Global Warming and Coastal Erosion. Climatic Change, 64(1/2): 41-58. Doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000024690.32682.48.

Bruun, P. 1962. Sea-level Rise as a Cause of Shore Erosion. Journal of the Waterways and Harbors Division. 88(1): 117-132.

Miller, J. K., and Dean, R. G. 2004. A Simple New Shoreline Change Model. Coastal Engineering. 51(7): 531-556.

Yates, M. L., Guza, R. T., and O'reilly, W. C. 2009. Equilibrium Shoreline Response: Observations and Modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 114(C9).

Houston, J. R. 2017. Shoreline Change in Response To Sea-Level Rise On Florida's West Coast. Journal of Coastal Research. 33(6): 1243-1260.

Nicholson, J., Broker, I., Roelvink, J. A., Price, D., Tanguy, J. M., and Moreno, L. 1997. Intercomparison of Coastal Area Morphodynamic Models. Coastal Engineering. 31(1-4): 97-123.

Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., Van Dongeren, A. P., De Vries, J. V. T., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J. 2009. Modelling Storm Impacts on Beaches, Dunes and Barrier Islands. Coastal Engineering. 56(11-12): 1133-1152.

Warren, I. R., and Bach, H. 1992. MIKE 21: A Modelling System for Estuaries, Coastal Waters and Seas. Environmental Software. 7(4): 229-240.

Kaergaard, K., and Fredsoe, J. 2013. A Numerical Shoreline Model for Shorelines with Large Curvature. Coastal Engineering. 74: 19-32.

Warner, J. C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J. B. 2010. Development of a Coupled Ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System. Ocean Modelling. 35(3): 230-244.

De Winter, R. C., Gongriep, F., and Ruessink, B. G. 2015. Observations and Modeling of Alongshore Variability in Dune Erosion at Egmond aan Zee, The Netherlands. Coastal Engineering. 99: 167-175.

Murray, M. P. 2007. Fire and Pacific Coast Whitebark Pine. Whitebark Pine: A Pacific Coast Perspective. R6-NRFHP-2007-01. Portland, OR: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region. 51-60.

Ranasinghe, R., Duong, T. M., Uhlenbrook, S., Roelvink, D., and Stive, M. 2013. Climate-change Impact Assessment for Inlet-interrupted Coastlines. Nature Climate Change. 3(1): 83-87.

French, J., Burningham, H., Thornhill, G., Whitehouse, R., and Nicholls, R. J. 2016. Conceptualising and Mapping Coupled Estuary, Coast and Inner Shelf Sediment Systems. Geomorphology. 256: 17-35.

Castelle, B., Almar, R., Dorel, M., Lefebvre, J. P., Sénéchal, N., Anthony, E. J., and Penhoat, Y. D. 2014. Rip Currents and Circulation on a High-energy Low-tide-terraced Beach (Grand Popo, Benin, West Africa). Journal of Coastal Research. 70: 633-638.

Yates, M. L., Guza, R. T., O'Reilly, W. C., Hansen, J. E., and Barnard, P. L. 2011. Equilibrium Shoreline Response of a High Wave Energy Beach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 116(C4).

USACE, C. 1984. Shore Protection Manual. Vol. 1.

Kamphuis, J. W. 1991. Alongshore Sediment Transport Rate. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering. 117(6): 624-640.

Van Rijn, L. C. 2003. Longshore Sand Transport. Coastal Engineering 2002: Solving Coastal Conundrums. 2439-2451.

Zviely, D., Kit, E., and Klein, M. 2007. Longshore Sand Transport Estimates along the Mediterranean Coast of Israel in the Holocene. Marine Geology. 238(1-4): 61-73.

Armenio, E., D’Alessandro, F., Tomasicchio, G. R., and Aristodemo, F. 2011. Estimation and Verification of Long-shore Sediment Transport (LST) at Lecce Coastline. In th5 SCACR 2011 International Short Conference on Applied Coastal Research. 430.

Schwartz, M. L. 1967. The Bruun Theory of Sea-level Rise as a Cause of Shore Erosion. The Journal of Geology. 75(1): 76-92.

Aagaard, T., and Sørensen, P. 2012. Coastal Profile Response to Sea Level Rise: A Process‐based Approach. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 37(3): 354-362.

Anderson, T. R., Fletcher, C. H., Barbee, M. M., Frazer, L. N., and Romine, B. M. 2015. Doubling of Coastal Erosion under Rising Sea Level by Mid-century in Hawaii. Natural Hazards. 78(1): 75-103

Rollason, R., Patterson, D., and Huxley, C. 2010. Assessing Shoreline Response to Sea Level Rise: An Alternative to the Bruun Rule.

Cooper, J. A. G.; and Pilkey, O. H. 2004. Sea-level Rise and Shoreline Retreat: Time to Abandon the Bruun Rule. Global and Planetary Change. 43(3-4): 157-171.

Mohamad, M. F., Lee, L. H., and Samion, M. K. H. 2014. Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Towards Sustainable Management of Peninsular Malaysia Coastline. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development. 5(6): 533.

Jeofry, M. H., and Rozainah, M. Z. 2013. General Observations About Rising Sea Levels in Peninsular Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Science. 32: 363-370.

Published

2022-07-26

How to Cite

Ali, O., & Ab Razak, M. S. . (2022). PREDICTION OF SHORELINE CHANGE USING A NEW LONG-TERM SHORELINE EVOLUTION MODEL BASED ON THE CONCEPT OF SEDIMENT BALANCE . Jurnal Teknologi, 84(5). https://doi.org/10.11113/jurnalteknologi.v84.18106

Issue

Section

Science and Engineering