Menjejak Perubahan Fertiliti dan Umur Perkahwinan di Semenanjung Malaysia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/jt.v39.457Abstract
Kertas ini menjejak perubahan fertiliti tujuh kumpulan kohot kelahiran. Penjejakan dilakukan dengan cara menggabung model fertiliti perkahwinan dan model umur perkahwinan. Kedua-dua model telah diusulkan oleh Coale dan Trusell. Kaedah regresi tak linear digunakan untuk menganggar parameter anu pada model. Didapati model yang dicadangkan mampu memadan data laporan kelahiran tahunan dengan baik. Berasaskan pemadanan ini didapati kadar fertiliti wanita Malaysia terus menurun. Kohot kelahiran selepas dekad lima puluhan mempunyai kadar fertiliti semulajadi 50 % kadar yang sepatutnya. Kajian ini juga menunjukkan purata umur wanita berkahwin terus meningkat. Purata tahun diambil untuk memasuki alam perkahwinan setelah seseorang mencapai umur minimum berkahwin meningkat dari tiga kepada empat tahun. Purata umur berkahwin bagi kohot muda sekitar 21 – 22 tahun manakala kohot tua sekitar 15 – 16 tahun. Kertas ini juga turut membincangkan bagaimana perubahan kegiatan ekonomi berperanan dalam mencorakkan perubahan yang dikesan. Kata kunci: Fertiliti, kadar fertiliti, jumlah kadar fertiliti, fertiliti semulajadi, umur berkahwin This paper attempts to trace fertility changes for seven birth cohorts. Both marital fertility model and model for age of marriage by Coale and Trussell are combined to trace the changes. Nonlinear regression technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the model. The model suggested is found to fit the yearly birth data well. Based on the model fitting, it is discovered that fertility rate among Malaysian women declines steadily. The post 50s birth cohorts have natural fertility rate of only half of the supposed rate. Average age of marriage among women is found to be on the increase. The study also reveals an increase from three years to four years, the average number of years required prior to entering marriage life after a woman reaches a minimum age of marriage. The younger cohorts´ average age of marriage is around 21 to 22 years whereas the older cohorts is around 15 to 16 years. This paper also discusses on how changes in economic activities are responsible to shape the pattern of changes traced. Key words: Fertility fertility rate, total fertility rate, age of marriageDownloads
Published
2012-01-20
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Section
Science and Engineering
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How to Cite
Menjejak Perubahan Fertiliti dan Umur Perkahwinan di Semenanjung Malaysia. (2012). Jurnal Teknologi (Sciences & Engineering), 39(1), 75–89. https://doi.org/10.11113/jt.v39.457