NONLINEAR SMOOTH TRANSITION AUTOREGRESSIVE (STAR)–TYPE MODELLING AND FORECASTING ON MALAYSIA AIRLINES (MAS) STOCK RETURNS

Abstract

This study aims to apply nonlinear Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR)-type model to the Malaysia Airlines (MAS) Stock Returns, which consists of 4450 number of observations. The data taken started from 29^th August 1996 until 26^th September 2014. Following the STAR strategies by Terasvirta, the diagnostic plots of linear Autoregressive (AR) model revealed that AR (3) model is adequate in modelling the MAS returns series. However, the squared residuals of Autocorrelation Function (ACF) of returns series illustrates a slight presence of correlations in the model, hence the effort to apply nonlinear model was continued. Before proceed to nonlinear STAR modelling, the identification of delay parameter in the second stage of Terasvirta need to be determined. The results of Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests revealed that delay parameter, d=3 is the best to choose. In addition, the null hypothesis of linearity from LM test is rejected. Furthermore, from the sequence of nested hypothesis of delay parameter, d=3 indicated that LSTAR model is preferred than ESTAR model. Finally, the forecasts and comparison stages was made to compare which models are best performed in forecasting the future series of MAS returns. It proved that LSTAR model performed better in term of forecasting accuracy when compared to ESTAR and AR model.