Water Use Trend at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia: Application of ARIMA Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/jt.v41.697Abstract
Kertas kerja ini menerangkan aplikasi kaedah permodelan (ARIMA) bagi mewakili perilaku penggunaan air di kampus Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. Menggunakan fungsi–fungsi ACF, PACF dan AIC, siri masa penggunaan air bulanan di kampus UTM boleh dinyatakan dalam model ARIMA (2,0,0). Anggaran parameter model ø1 dan ø2 ialah 0.2747 dan 0.4194. Keadaan tersebut menggambarkan bahawa penggunaan air pada bulan semasa tidak semestinya dipengaruhi dengan tepat oleh kadar penggunaan air pada bulan sebelumnya. Analisis juga menunjukkan model ARIMA (2,0,0) boleh diguna sebagai model ramalan guna air di kampus universiti. Kata kunci: Guna air, kampus universiti, siri masa, model ARIMA The paper describes the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to represent water use behaviour at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) campus. Using autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), monthly campus water use series can be best presented using ARIMA (2,0,0) model. The estimated parameter of the model ø1 and ø2 are 0.2747 and 0.4194 respectively. This implies that water consumption in UTM campus at the present month is not necessarily influenced by water consumption of immediate previous month. Analysis shows that ARIMA (2,0,0) model provides a reasonable forecasting tool for campus water use. Key words: Water use, university campus, time series, ARIMA modelDownloads
Published
2012-02-25
Issue
Section
Science and Engineering
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Copyright of articles that appear in Jurnal Teknologi belongs exclusively to Penerbit Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (Penerbit UTM Press). This copyright covers the rights to reproduce the article, including reprints, electronic reproductions, or any other reproductions of similar nature.
How to Cite
Water Use Trend at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia: Application of ARIMA Model. (2012). Jurnal Teknologi, 41(1), 47–56. https://doi.org/10.11113/jt.v41.697