THE EFFECTS OF SPECIAL EVENTS ON REGRESSION FOR SUBCOMPACT CAR SALES IN THAILAND

Authors

  • Witchaya Rattanametawee Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520 Thailand
  • Chartchai Leenawong Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520 Thailand
  • Ponrudee Netisopakul Knowledge Management and Knowledge Engineering Lab., Faculty of Information Technology, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520, Thailand

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11113/.v78.9113

Keywords:

Multiple Regression, Forecasting Event Modelling, Car Sales, Thailand

Abstract

This research proposes a method to dealing with multiple linear regression that integrates the seasonality as well as the effects of some special or unanticipated events for sales figures. The method is then applied to the car sales figures in Thailand after having been through the 2011 national big flood and the 2011-2012 government’s initiative tax-incentive program for boosting the automobile industry. Besides Thailand’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and the 12-month Loan’s Interest Rate as explanatory variables, seasonal dummy variables along with the proposed special event variables and appropriate event tagging are incorporated. The statistical results obtained from the proposed regression model with seasons and events, compared to the models with neither seasons nor both yields highest adjusted coefficient of determination (R-squre) and accuracy (MAPE).

Author Biographies

  • Witchaya Rattanametawee, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520 Thailand
    Faculty of Science, 
    King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, 
    Bangkok, 10520 THAILAND
  • Chartchai Leenawong, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520 Thailand

    Associate Professor rank

    Faculty of Science,
    King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang,
    Bangkok, 10520 THAILAND

    EDUCATION
    • Ph.D. (Operations Research), Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, USA, 2002.
    • M.Sc. (Management Science), Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, USA, 2001.
    • M.B.A. (Financial Management), National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), THAILAND, 1997.
    • M.Sc. (Computer Science), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), THAILAND, 1994.
    • B.B.A. (Marketing Management), Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Thailand, 1995.
    • B.Sc. (Mathematics), Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, 1991.
  • Ponrudee Netisopakul, Knowledge Management and Knowledge Engineering Lab., Faculty of Information Technology, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, 10520, Thailand

    Associate Professor rank

    Knowledge Management and Knowledge Engineering Lab., Faculty of Information Technology,
    King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang,
    Bangkok, 10520 THAILAND 

References

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Published

2016-10-31

Issue

Section

Science and Engineering

How to Cite

THE EFFECTS OF SPECIAL EVENTS ON REGRESSION FOR SUBCOMPACT CAR SALES IN THAILAND. (2016). Jurnal Teknologi, 78(11). https://doi.org/10.11113/.v78.9113