REGIME SHIFT IN MONSOON RAINFALL OF BANGLADESH: A SEQUENTIAL DATA PROCESSING APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/mjce.v27.15963Keywords:
Rainfall shifting, sequential data processing, monsoon, climate changeAbstract
As the economy and livelihoods of Bangladesh heavily depends on agriculture, any changes in monsoon rainfall have severe implications for the country. There is a growing concern on monsoon rainfall pattern change in Bangladesh in recent years like other parts of Indian summer monsoon region. A study has been carried out in this paper to analyze the monsoon rainfall time series of Bangladesh to decipher if there any shift in monsoon rainfall regime of Bangladesh. Sixty four years rainfall data recorded at twenty-nine locations distributed over Bangladesh were analyzed using a sequential regime shift detection method for this purpose. The proposed method employed Student’s t-test to detect difference between two subsequent regimes with a cut-off length of one to determine the regime shift. The result shows that monsoon rainfall has increased, mostly in recent years in many locations of Bangladesh. Though increased monsoon rainfall will be helpful for rain-fed agriculture in Bangladesh, at the same time it will also cause more frequent floods, urban water logging, water-borne diseases, etc.References
Ahmed, R (1989). Probabilistic estimates of rainfall extremes in Bangladesh during the premonsoon
season. Indian Geogr J 64:39–53
Ahmed, R. and Kim, I. K. (2003). Patterns of daily rainfall in Bangladesh during the summer
monsoon season: case studies at three stations. Physical Geography, 24(4): 295-318.
Berkelhammer, M., Sinha, A., Stott, L., Cheng, H., Pausata, F. S. R., and Yoshimura, K. (2012).
An abrupt shift in the Indian monsoon 4000 years ago. Climates, Landscapes, and
Civilizations, 75-88.
Chandrapala, L. and Fernando, T. K. (1995). Climate variability in Sri Lanka—a study of air
temperature, rainfall and thunder activity. In Proceedings of the International
Symposium on Climate and Life in the Asia-Pacific, University of Brunei, Darussalam,
–13 April.
Chang, Z., Xiao, J., Lü, L. and Yao, H. (2010). Abrupt shifts in the Indian monsoon during the
Pliocene marked by high-resolution terrestrial records from the Yuanmou Basin in
southwest China. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,37(2), 166-175.
Collie, J. S., Richardson, K and Steele, J. H. (2004). Regime shifts: can ecological theory
illuminate the mechanisms? Progress in Oceanography, 60(2): 281-302.
Ding, R., Ha, K. J. and Li, J. (2010). Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian
summer monsoon and the tropical Indian Ocean.Climate dynamics, 34(7-8), 1059-1071.
Hashizume, M., Armstrong, B., Hajat, S., Wagatsuma, Y., Faruque, A. S., Hayashi, T. and Sack,
D. A. (2007). Association between climate variability and hospital visits for non-cholera
Diarrhoea in Bangladesh: effects and vulnerable groups. International journal of
epidemiology, 36(5): 1030-1037.
Hashizume, M., Armstrong, B., Wagatsuma, Y., Faruque, A. S. G., Hayashi, T. and Sack, D. A.
(2008). Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a timeseries
analysis. Epidemiology and infection. 136(09): 1281-1289.
Hsieh, C. H., Glaser, S. M., Lucas, A. J and Sugihara, G. (2005). Distinguishing random
environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean.
Nature, 435(7040), 336-340.
Huijun, W. (2001). The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970's.
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 18(3): 376-386.
Karmakar, S. and Khatun, A. (1995). Variability and probabilistic estimates of rainfall extremes
in Bangladesh during the southwest monsoon season. Mausam, 46(1): 47-56.
Kothyari, U. C. and Singh, V. P. (1996). Rainfall and temperature trends in India. Hydrological
Processes, 10(3): 357-372.
Lau K-M (1992). East Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability and climate teleconnection.
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 70:211–24.
May, W. (2004). Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian
summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment. Climate
Dynamics, 22(2-3):183-204.
McMichael, A. J., Woodruff, R. E. and Hales, S. (2006). Climate change and human health:
present and future risks. The Lancet, 367(9513): 859-869.
Mirza, M. Q. and Dixit, A. (1997). Climate change and water management in the GBM Basins.
Water Nepal Volume, 5, 5(1): 63-89.
Noy-Meir, I. (1975). Stability of grazing systems: an application of predator-prey graphs. The
Journal of Ecology, 459-481.
OEPP (1996). Report on Environmental Conditions of the Year 1994. Bangkok, Office of
Environmental Policy and Planning, Ministry of Science, Technology and Energy,
Thailand.
Palmer, T. N. and Räisänen, J. (2002). Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation
events in a changing climate. Nature, 415(6871):512-514.
Qian, W. and Lee, D. K. (2000). Seasonal march of Asian summer monsoon. International
Journal of Climatology, 20(11): 1371-1386.
Rahman, T. (2012). Landslide risk reduction of the informal foothill settlements of Chittagong
city through strategic design measure.
Rashid, H.E. (1991). Geography of Bangladesh. University Press Ltd, Dhaka (Bangladesh).
Rodionov, S. N. (2004). A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophysical
Research Letters, 31(9).
Ross, R. J. and Elliott, W. P. (2001). Radiosonde-based Northern Hemisphere tropospheric
water vapor trends. Journal of Climate, 14(7).
Sabeerali, C. T., Rao, S. A., Ajayamohan, R. S. and Murtugudde, R. (2012). On the relationship
between Indian summer monsoon withdrawal and Indo-Pacific SST anomalies before
and after 1976/1977 climate shift. Climate dynamics,39 (3-4), 841-859.
Sandeep, S. and Ajayamohan, R. S. (2014). Poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon low level
jetstream under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 1-15.
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C. and Walker, B. (2001). Catastrophic shifts in
ecosystems. Nature, 413(6856): 591-596.
Shahid, S., Khairulmaini, O.S. (2009). Spatio-Temporal variability of Rainfall over Bangladesh
during the time period 1969-2003. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 45 (3),
-389.
Shahid, S. (2010). Spatial assessment of groundwater demand in Northwest
Bangladesh. International Journal of Water, 5(3), 267-283.
Shahid, S. (2011a). Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theoretical and applied
climatology, 104(3-4): 489-499.
Shahid, S. (2011b). Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice
in northwest Bangladesh. Climatic change, 105(3-4), 433-453.
Singh, N. and Sontakke, N. A. (2002). On climatic fluctuations and environmental changes of the
Indo-Gangetic plains, India. Climatic Change, 52(3): 287-313.
Suhas, E., & Goswami, B. N. (2008). Regime shift in Indian summer monsoon climatological
intraseasonal oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(20).
Tian, S. F. and Yasunari, T. (1998). Climatological aspects and mechanism of spring persistent
rains over central China. Journal-Meteorological Society of Japan Series, 2, 76: 57-71.
Trenberth, K. E. (1998). Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for
rainfall rates and climate change. Climatic change, 39(4): 667-694.
Weng, H., Lau, K. M. and Xue, Y. (1999). Multi-scale summer rainfall variability over China
and its long-term link to global sea surface temperature variability. Journal of the
Meteorological Society of Japan, 77(4): 845-857.
Wu, R., Kinter Iii, J. L. and Kirtman, B. P. (2005). Discrepancy of Interdecadal Changes in the
Asian Region among the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis, Objective Analyses, and
Observations. Journal of climate, 18(15).
