SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL TRENDS IN MEAN, MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE NIGER-SOUTH BASIN, NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/mjce.v28.15981Keywords:
Trend analysis, temperature series, Mann-kendal test, climate change, NSBAbstract
Analysis of trends in temperature can provide important information required for the understanding of climate in any geographical setting. In this study, trends of mean (TMEAN), maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) air temperature series were investigated based on monthly, seasonal and annual time-scales over the Niger-South Basin (NSB) during 1948–2008. Standard statistical tests and Mann-Kendall trend technique were used to analyse the temperature series. The results revealed a uniform warming over the basin with an average coefficient of variability of 1.36%. Three periods of warming and cooling were identified as: 1948-1956 (cooling), 1957-1978 (moderate warming) and 1979-2008 (increased warming) - with year 1998 being the warmest (TMEAN=27.8 oC), while 1975 was the coldest (TMEAN=26.2 oC). The warmest season was during March-April-May (spring) and June-July-August (summer) the coldest, whereas February and March were the warmest months of the year. Trends were positively significant over the basin on monthly, seasonal and annual bases for all series, while increasing trend in TMIN series was strongest. The trend in TMEAN, TMAX and TMIN averaged over the whole basin were 0.83, 0.79 and 0.90 °C per annum, respectively. The increasing warming trends for all series were also stronger in autumn and summer than in spring and winter. On the monthly basis, the highest TMEAN, TMAX and TMIN increase were in February (1.13 oC/yr), September (1.22 oC/yr) and January (1.41 oC/yr), respectively. On the whole, average increased warming over the entire basin was 0.83 oC per annum. The study showed that the increased warming in the basin that has been further intensified since the year 2001 can be attributed to the influence of global warming.References
Anghileri, D., Pianosi, F., and Soncini-Sessa, R. (2014). Trend detection in seasonal data: from
hydrology to water resources. Journal of Hydrology 511: 171–179.
Bhutiyani, M.R., Kale, V.S., and Pawar, N.J. (2007). Long-term trends in maximum, minimum
and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth
century. Climate Change 85: 159–177.
Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Monti, F., and Nanni, T. (2006). Temperature and precipitation
variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series.
International Journal of Climatology 26: 345–381.
Callaway, J.M. (2004). Adaptation benefits and costs: how important are they in the global policy
picture and how can we estimate them? Global Environmental Change 14: 273–284.
Ceppi, P., Scherrer, S.C., Fischer, A.M., and Appenzeller, C. (2012). Revisiting Swiss
temperature trends 1959–2008. International Journal of Climatology 32: 203–213.
Conway, D., Persechino, A., Ardoin-Bardin, S., Hamandawana, H., Dieulin, C., and Mahé, G.
(2009). Rainfall and water resources variability in sub-Saharan Africa during the twentieth
century. Journal of Hydrometeorology 10: 41–59.
Dinpashoh, Y., Jhajharia, D., Fakheri-Fard, A., Singh, V.P., and Kahya, E. (2011). Trends in
reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. Journal of Hydrology 399: 422–433.
Fu, G.B., Charles, S.P., Yu, J.J., and Liu, C.M. (2009). Decadal climatic variability, trends and
future scenarios for the North China Plain. Journal of Climate 22: 2111–2123.
Gadgil, A. and Dhorde, A. (2005). Temperature trends in twentieth century at Pune, India.
Atmospheric Environment 39: 6550–6556.
Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S. (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using MannKendall
and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global Planetary Change 100:
–182.
Hamed, K.H. (2008). Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the
scaling hypothesis. Journal of Hydrology 349: 350–363.
Hasanean, H.M. (2001). Fluctuations of surface air temperature in the east Mediterranean.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 68: 75-87.
Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R., and Smith, R.A. (1982). Techniques of trend analysis for monthly
water quality data. Water Resources Research 18(1): 107–121.
Hulme, M. Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M., and Lister, D. (2001). African climate change:
-2100. Climate Research 17: 145-168.
IPCC (2001). Summary for Policymakers. A Report of the Working Group I of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
IPCC (2007). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability, Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ,
Hanson CE (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 976.
IPCC (2013). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen,
J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Jhajharia, D., Dinpashoh, Y., Kahya, E., Singh, V.P., and Fakheri-Fard, A. (2011). Trends in
reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India. Hydrological
Processes 26: 421–435.
Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S. (2004). Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology
: 128–144.
Kielly, G. (1999). Climate change in Ireland from precipitation and streamflow observations.
Advances in Water Resources 23: 141–151.
Kothawale, D. R., Revadekar, J. V., and Kumar, R.K. (2010). Recent trends in pre-monsoon
daily temperature extremes over India. Journal of Earth System Science 119: 51–65.
Kumar, V., Jain, S. K., and Singh, Y. (2010). Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India.
Hydrological Science Journal 55: 484–496.
Mitchell, T.D., Hulme, M., and New, M. (2001). Climate data for political areas. Area 34(1):
-112.
Mitchell, T.D. and Jones, P.D. (2005). An improved method of constructing a database of
monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal
of Climatology 25: 693–712.
Nasher, N.M.R. and Uddin, M.N. (2013). Maximum and Minimum Temperature Trends
Variation over Northern and Southern Part of Bangladesh. Journal of Environmental
Science & Natural Resources 6: 83-88.
National Population Commission (2006). The Nigeria Population Commission NPC Official
Result for 2006 Population and Housing Census Figures. Bureau for National Statistics,
Abuja, Nigeria. http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng.
New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.D. (2000). Representing twentieth century space-time climate
variability. Part II: Development of a 1961–90 Mean monthly terrestrial climatology.
Journal of Climate 13: 2217–2238.
Odjugo, A.O. (2010). Regional evidence of climate change in Nigeria.Journal of Geography and
Regional Planning 3: 142-150.
Oguntunde, P.G., Abiodun, B.J., and Lischeid, G. (2012). Spatial and Temporal temperature
trends in Nigeria, 1901-2000. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 118: 95-105.
Rosso, F.V., Boiask, N.T., Ferraz, S.E.T., Dewes, C.F., and Tatsch, J.D. (2015). Trends and
Decadal Variability in Air Temperature over Southern Brazil. American Journal of
Environmental Engineering 5(1A): 85-95.
Salmi, T., Maatta, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., and Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting Trends of
Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope
Estimates. Publications on Air Quality, No. 31. Helsinki, Finland, 25 pp.
Sarr, B. (2012). Present and future climate change in the semi-arid region of West Africa: a
crucial input for practical adaptation in agriculture. Atmospheric Science Letters: 1-5.
Sen, P.K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of
American Statistical Association 63: 1379–1389.
Sonali, P. and Kumar, D.N. (2013). Review of trend detection methods and their application to
detect temperature changes in India. Journal of Hydrology 476: 212–227.
Tabari, H. and Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. (2011). Analysis of trends in temperature data in arid and
semi-arid regions of Iran. Global Planetary Change 79(1–2): 1–10.
Tabari, H., Shifteh Somee, B., and Rezaeian Zadeh, M. (2011). Testing for long-term trends in
climatic variables in Iran. Atmospheric Research 100(1): 132–140.
Tao, H., Gemmer, M., Bai, Y., Su, B., and Mao, W. (2011). Trends of streamflow in the Tarim
River Basin during the past 50 years: human impact or climate change? Journal of
Hydrology 400: 1–9.
Tshiala, M.F., Mukarugwiza Olwoch, J.M., and Engelbrecht, F.A. (2011). Analysis of
Temperature Trends over Limpopo Province, South Africa. Journal of Geography and
Geology 3: 13-21.
Turkes, M., Sumer, U.M., and Demir, I. (2002). Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean,
maximum, and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929–1999. International
Journal of Climatology 22: 947–977.
Türkes, M. and Sümer, U.M., (2004). Spatial and temporal patterns of trends and variability in
diurnal temperature ranges of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 77: 195–227.
UNFCC (2007). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, United Nations
Climate Change Conference, Nusa Dua, in Bali, Indonesia, 3rd- 5th December 15, 2007.
http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/items/4049.php.
Vose, R.S., Easterling, D.R., and Gleason, B. (2005). Maximum and minimum temperature
trends for the globe: An update through 2004. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 1-5.
WMO (1988). Analyzing long time series of hydrological data with respect to climate variability.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO): WCAP-3, WMO/TD-No: 224, Switzerland,
pp. 1–12.
Xu, Z., Liu, Z., Fu, G., and Chen, Y. (2010). Trends of major hydroclimatic variables ithe Tarim
River basin during the past 50 years. Journal of Arid Environment 74: 256–267.