SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF A FAO PENMAN MONTEITH FOR POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/jt.v79.8377Keywords:
Potential evapotranspiration, sensitivity analysis, FAO Penman-Monteith, meteorological parameters, climate changeAbstract
Sensitivity of the FAO Penman-Monteith (FPM) potential evapotranspiration (PET) model under tropical climates has been studied in the present study. A total of 17 meteorological stations covering Peninsular Malaysia starting from 1987-2003 were used as model inputs. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was carried out using the graphical method for temperature, wind speed and solar radiation within the possible range of ±20% with increments of 5%. From the comparison done on the sensitivity of PET to climatic change, the Kuala Krai station gave the highest percentage change in terms of temperature (±6%). The highest percentage change for wind speed (±2%) and solar radiation (±17%) were shown at the Alor Setar and Kuala Krai stations, respectively. The Alor Setar station had the lowest percentage change for temperature (±0.3%) and solar radiation (±9.9). The lowest percentage change of wind speed (± 0.2%) was observed at the Kuala Krai station. PET percentage changes have a positive correlation to the percentage change of all climatic variables except for the Cameron Highlands station. Results revealed that solar radiation has the most significant effect on PET (±14%), followed by temperature (±4%) and wind speed (±1%). Taken together, these results suggest that solar radiation plays an important role in estimating PET in Peninsular Malaysia.
References
Chattopadhyay, N. and M. Hulme. 1997. Evaporation and Potential Evapotranspiration in India Under Conditions of Recent and Future Climate Change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 87: 55-73.
Torres, A. F., W. R. Walker and M. McKee. 2011. Forecasting Daily Potential Evapotranspiration Using Machine Learning and Limited Climatic Data. Agricultural Water Management. 98: 553-562.
Wang, X.-j., J.-y. Zhang, S. Shahid, E.-h. Guan, Y.-x. Wu, J. Gao, et al. 2014. Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Water Demand. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change. 21: 81-99.
Beyene, T., D. Lettenmaier and P. Kabat. 2010. Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile River Basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC Scenarios. Climatic Change. 100: 433-461.
Pachauri, R. K., M. R. Allen, V. R. Barros, J. Broome, W. Cramer, R. Christ, et al. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC.
Meza, F. J., D. S. Wilks, L. Gurovich and N. Bambach. 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in the Maipo Basin, Chile: Reliability of Water Rights and Changes in the Demand for Irrigation. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. ASCE. 138: 421-430.
Shahid, S. 2011. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demand of Dry Season Boro Rice in Northwest Bangladesh. Climatic Change. 105: 433-453.
Xiao-jun, W., Z. Jian-yun, W. Jian-hua, H. Rui-min, A. ElMahdi, L. Jin-hua, et al. 2014. Climate Change and Water Resources Management in Tuwei River Basin of Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change. 19: 107-120.
Shahid, S. 2009. Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in Bangladesh. Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health. 22(3): 310-319.
Hanjra, M. A. and M. E. Qureshi. 2010. Global Water Crisis and Future Food Security in an Era of Climate Change. Food Policy. 35: 365-377.
Haaker, M. P. R. and P. J. T. Verheijen. 2004. Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis for a Reactor Design with Parameter Uncertainty. Chemical Engineering Research and Design. 82: 591-598.
Saltelli, A., M. Ratto, T. Andres, F. Campolongo, J. Cariboni, D. Gatelli, et al. 2008. Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. John Wiley & Sons. 11.
Gong, L., C.-y. Xu, D. Chen, S. Halldin and Y. D. Chen. 2006. Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith reference Evapotranspiration to Key Climatic Variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Basin. Journal of Hydrology. 329: 620-629.
Estévez, J., P. Gavilán and J. Berengena. 2009. Sensitivity Analysis of a Penman–Monteith Type Equation to Estimate Reference Evapotranspiration In Southern Spain. Hydrological Processes. 23: 3342-3353.
Zhao, J., Z.-x. Xu, D.-p. Zuo and X.-m. Wang. 2015. Temporal Variations of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Heihe River Basin, China. Water Science and Engineering. 8: 1-8.
Tukimat, N. N. A., S. Harun and S. Shahid. 2012. Comparison of Different Methods in Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration at Muda Irrigation Scheme of Malaysia. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS). 113: 77-85.
Ali, M. H. and L. T. Shui. 2009. Potential Evapotranspiration Model for Muda Irrigation Project, Malaysia. Water Resources Management. 23: 57-69.
Lee, T. S., M. Najim, M. Mujithaba, M. Haque and Y. F. Huang. 2005. Estimation of Evapotranspiration in a Rice Irrigation Scheme in Peninsular Malaysia. Pertanika Journal of Science & Technology. 13: 271-285.
Tabari, H. and P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee. 2014. Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration to Climatic Change in Different Climates. Global and Planetary Change. 115: 16-23.
Ambas, V. T. and E. Baltas. 2012. Sensitivity Analysis of Different Evapotranspiration Methods Using a New Sensitivity Coefficient. Global NEST Journal. 14: 335-343.
Feng, J., D. Yan, C. Li, F. Yu and C. Zhang. 2014. Assessing the Impact of Climatic Factors on Potential Evapotranspiration In Droughts In North China. Quaternary International. 336: 6-12.
Liu, H., R. Zhang and Y. Li. 2013. Sensitivity Analysis Of Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) to Climate Change in Beijing, China. Desalination and Water Treatment. 52: 2799-2804.
Goyal, R. 2004. Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration to Global Warming: A Case Study of Arid Zone of Rajasthan (India). Agricultural Water Management. 69: 1-11.
Irmak, S., J. O. Payero, D. L. Martin, A. Irmak and T. A. Howell. 2006. Sensitivity Analyses and Sensitivity Coefficients of Standardized Daily ASCE-Penman-Monteith Equation. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. 132: 564-578.
McKenney, M. S. and N. J. Rosenberg. 1993. Sensitivity of Some Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation Methods to Climate Change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 64: 81-110.
Jeevananda Reddy, S. 1995. Sensitivity of Some Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation Methods to Climate Change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 77: 121-125.
Gao, Z., J. He, K. Dong, X. Bian and X. Li. 2015. Sensitivity Study of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration During Growing Season In The West Liao River Basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 1-17.
Vicenteâ€Serrano, S. M., C. Azorinâ€Molina, A. Sanchezâ€Lorenzo, J. Revuelto, E. Moránâ€Tejeda, J. I. Lópezâ€Moreno, et al. 2014. Sensitivity of Reference Evapotranspiration to Changes in Meteorological Parameters in Spain (1961–2011). Water Resources Research. 50(11): 8458-8480.
Hupet, F. and M. Vanclooster. 2001. Effect of the Sampling Frequency of Meteorological Variables on the Estimation of the Reference Evapotranspiration. Journal of Hydrology. 243: 192-204.
Hanafi, Z. 1994. Housing Design in Relation to Environmental Comfort—A Comparison of the Traditional Malay House and Modern Housing: In the Hot Humid Climate of Malaysia Neither Traditional Nor Modern Housing Techniques Provide A Completely Satisfactory Solution to Meeting Ideal Human Thermal Comfort Requirements. Building Research and Information. 22: 21-33.
Fayyad, U. M., G. Piatetsky-Shapiro and R. Uthurusamy. 2003. Summary from the KDD-03 Panel: Data Mining: The Next 10 Years. ACM Sigkdd Explorations Newsletter. 5: 191-196.
Burges, C. 2005. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Handbook: A Complete Guide for Practitioners and Researchers, Chapter Geometric Methods for Feature Selection and Dimensional Reduction: A Guided Tour. CJC Burges-Kluwer Academic.
Lo Presti, R., E. Barca and G. Passarella. 2010. A Methodology for Treating Missing Data Applied to Daily Rainfall Data in the Candelaro River Basin (Italy). Environ Monit Assess. 160: 1-22.
Graham, J. W. 2009. Missing Data Analysis: Making It Work in the Real World. Annual Review of Psychology. 60: 549-576.
Allen, R. G., L. S. Pereira, D. Raes and M. Smith. 1998. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 26-40.
Todorovic, M., B. Karic and L. S. Pereira. 2013. Reference Evapotranspiration Estimate with Limited Weather Data Across a Range of Mediterranean Climates. Journal of Hydrology. 481: 166-176.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright of articles that appear in Jurnal Teknologi belongs exclusively to Penerbit Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (Penerbit UTM Press). This copyright covers the rights to reproduce the article, including reprints, electronic reproductions, or any other reproductions of similar nature.
